AT&T's Ten Year's Future of DSL

ATT_Stanky_Next_ten_yearsVDSL performance will nearly double in 2010 with two line bonding, President John Stankey presented to Bank of America. There will be another gain, perhaps 30-60%, in the next four or five years. Stankey's chart projects two step functions. After that, his line is flat. Without a breakthrough, there speed improvements are likely very limited. We will be very close to the Shannon Law limits. One step, coming soon, is the doubling from bonding. The second, a few years off, will be due to vectoring and extended band plan/spectrum. Vectoring, also called DSM Level 3, produced dramatic improvements in demos at BBWF, but will take several years to become widespread. It will typically require replacing the DSM or line card, not trivial for millions of lines.

Stankey also projected average and peak demand at moderate rates of growth from now until 2018. Predictions about the future are uncertain, but currently the rate of growth of bandwidth is slightly lower than the trend from 2002 to date. The doom and gloom projections of Internet traffic growing so fast the net will slow down by 2007 or 2009 are now officially garbage.

Another important note in Stankey's presentation is the continuing improvement in the cost of the U-Verse deployment and Opex. They've recently seen an 18% reduction in hours to install from both better training and new equipment and techniques. In-home repair visits are down 31% and required 15% fewer hours. Costs continue to drop rapidly. /p>The real limits of copper, without innovations highly unlikely in the next decade, is 3-4 x what we have now. For long loops, that still isn't very much. Bonding, as I reported, easily doubles things for $50-100. Tricks with reduced noise (DSM) are worth 25-100% more, generally on the lower end of that.

We're flirting with the Shannon limit. If Cioffi hadn't come up with his noise tricks, and campaigned for others to develop them, we wouldn't even have this much. Written by Dave Burstein


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