ABI Research forecasts over five billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2010, with an approximate 4.8 billion connections having been reached by the end of the year's first quarter. Much of this growth will be registered in developing markets in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region.
Africa remains the fastest growing mobile market with a YoY growth of over 22%. Mobile penetration in Asia-Pacific will rise significantly to 65% by the end of 2010. "This unprecedented growth is driven by India and Indonesia, which have together added over 150 million subscriptions in the past four quarters," comments ABI Research analyst Bhavya Khanna. "Falling monthly tariffs and ultra-low-cost mobile handsets have democratised the reach and use of the mobile phone, and aggressive rollouts by mobile operators in these countries will see the current rate of subscriber addition maintained for some time to come."
At the other end of the spectrum, developed countries in North America and Europe continue to add subscriptions despite already having crossed the 100% penetration threshold. Driving this growth in subscriptions are new mobile devices and the ‘third screen' - including netbooks, tablet computers, USB dongles and e-book readers. "The success of Apple's iPad 3G shows that even operators in saturated markets can add subscriptions by introducing innovative and user-friendly devices," says vice president of forecasting Jake Saunders.
In addition, the introduction of 4G data networks such as WiMAX and LTE will see more consumers ditch their cables and access the Internet through mobile broadband connections. Operators such as Clearwire in the United States and Yota in Russia have seen consumers turn to their networks as fast and mobile alternatives to fixed-line broadband. By Sue Marek Created Jun 30 2010
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Jun 30, 2010
Microsoft quits Kin, focuses on Windows Phone 7
Microsoft discontinued its Kin cell phone effort just weeks after launching a pair of Kin-branded gadgets with Verizon Wireless (NYSE:VZ [1]), the nation's largest wireless carrier.
[2]"We have made the decision to focus exclusively on Windows Phone 7 and we will not ship Kin in Europe this fall as planned," Microsoft said in a press statement quoted by a number of media outlets. "Additionally, we are integrating our Kin team with the Windows Phone 7 team, incorporating valuable ideas and technologies from Kin into future Windows Phone releases. We will continue to work with Verizon in the U.S. to sell current Kin phones."
A Microsoft spokesman did not immediately respond to requests for additional comment.
While Microsoft's Kin phones, dubbed One and Two, received a lukewarm reception on launch, the speed with which Microsoft closed the gambit could reflect sharply disappointing sales. Indeed, Business Insider recently reported a rumor that Microsoft has sold only 500 Kin phones, an astonishing number considering the nationwide advertising effort, which included a number of TV spots, pushing the gadgets.
Microsoft and Verizon unveiled Kin One and Two in April, and began selling them in May. The Kin One went for $49.99 and the higher-powered Kin Two for $99.99--and both required the purchase of a $30 monthly data plan. Just a few days ago, Verizon cut the prices of the phones in half. The phones, which feature a number of social networking functions, were criticized as clunky and bereft of computing features now standard among smartphones, such as support for third-party applications.
According to CNet, Andy Lee, the senior vice president of Microsoft's mobile communications business, announced the news to Microsoft workers. Roz Ho, Microsoft's Kin team leader, will oversee the move of Kin into Microsoft's Windows Phone team and then will transition to an as-yet-determined role at the company, according to CNet.
Microsoft's Kin phones stemmed from the company's acquisition of Danger, maker of the T-Mobile USA Sidekick. Microsoft is now gearing up to release its Windows Phone 7 platform, a redesign of its smartphone operating system that is due out this fall. By Mike Dano Created Jun 30 2010 - 4:38pm
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[2]"We have made the decision to focus exclusively on Windows Phone 7 and we will not ship Kin in Europe this fall as planned," Microsoft said in a press statement quoted by a number of media outlets. "Additionally, we are integrating our Kin team with the Windows Phone 7 team, incorporating valuable ideas and technologies from Kin into future Windows Phone releases. We will continue to work with Verizon in the U.S. to sell current Kin phones."
A Microsoft spokesman did not immediately respond to requests for additional comment.
While Microsoft's Kin phones, dubbed One and Two, received a lukewarm reception on launch, the speed with which Microsoft closed the gambit could reflect sharply disappointing sales. Indeed, Business Insider recently reported a rumor that Microsoft has sold only 500 Kin phones, an astonishing number considering the nationwide advertising effort, which included a number of TV spots, pushing the gadgets.
Microsoft and Verizon unveiled Kin One and Two in April, and began selling them in May. The Kin One went for $49.99 and the higher-powered Kin Two for $99.99--and both required the purchase of a $30 monthly data plan. Just a few days ago, Verizon cut the prices of the phones in half. The phones, which feature a number of social networking functions, were criticized as clunky and bereft of computing features now standard among smartphones, such as support for third-party applications.
According to CNet, Andy Lee, the senior vice president of Microsoft's mobile communications business, announced the news to Microsoft workers. Roz Ho, Microsoft's Kin team leader, will oversee the move of Kin into Microsoft's Windows Phone team and then will transition to an as-yet-determined role at the company, according to CNet.
Microsoft's Kin phones stemmed from the company's acquisition of Danger, maker of the T-Mobile USA Sidekick. Microsoft is now gearing up to release its Windows Phone 7 platform, a redesign of its smartphone operating system that is due out this fall. By Mike Dano Created Jun 30 2010 - 4:38pm
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Jun 28, 2010
Over 20 million VoIP subscribers in the United States
VoIP users take note—you now command a noticeable share of wireline telephone service in the United States. The Federal Communications Commission reports 21 million subscriptions to Voice over Internet Protocol accounts provided by companies like Vonage, as well as the telcos and cable providers.
These represented 13 percent of the nation's 162 million wired connections as of December 31, 2008. The overwhelming majority were residential. Only one percent of those VoIP lines served businesses.
But VoIP still represents a relatively small percentage of the total number of landline phone subscriptions. The majority are still of the traditional switched access variety, carried over copper wire systems—141 million of these, all told. They count for 87 percent of all the lines (48% residential; 39% business accounts).
Has VoIP use significantly expanded over the last few years? "Interconnected VoIP service represents an important and rapidly growing part of the U.S. voice service market," the agency's report says.
We're sure that's true, but the Commission's next survey will offer more details on this growth, because 2008 was the first year that the FCC required carriers to report detailed data on the service (the previous report hardly mentioned VoIP at all).
The latest count does break down VoIP use in some interesting ways. It notes that the great majority of consumers who buy VoIP subscriptions do so via some kind of broadband bundle package involving TV, Internet and phone service. In 2008, 89.8 percent of those who purchased service from a big incumbent carrier and 79.4 percent who subscribed to a smaller carrier or cable company got their VoIP in this fashion.
The incumbents usually offered their VoIP via "DSL or Other Wireline" technology (98.1%) and the non-incumbents, mostly cable companies, provided it via coaxial lines.
This survey doesn't cover the growth of wireless telephone service. But the agency's last report cited 255.3 million wireless subscribers at the end of June 2008—17 million, or 7 percent, more than a year earlier. By Matthew Lasar
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These represented 13 percent of the nation's 162 million wired connections as of December 31, 2008. The overwhelming majority were residential. Only one percent of those VoIP lines served businesses.
But VoIP still represents a relatively small percentage of the total number of landline phone subscriptions. The majority are still of the traditional switched access variety, carried over copper wire systems—141 million of these, all told. They count for 87 percent of all the lines (48% residential; 39% business accounts).
Has VoIP use significantly expanded over the last few years? "Interconnected VoIP service represents an important and rapidly growing part of the U.S. voice service market," the agency's report says.
We're sure that's true, but the Commission's next survey will offer more details on this growth, because 2008 was the first year that the FCC required carriers to report detailed data on the service (the previous report hardly mentioned VoIP at all).
The latest count does break down VoIP use in some interesting ways. It notes that the great majority of consumers who buy VoIP subscriptions do so via some kind of broadband bundle package involving TV, Internet and phone service. In 2008, 89.8 percent of those who purchased service from a big incumbent carrier and 79.4 percent who subscribed to a smaller carrier or cable company got their VoIP in this fashion.
The incumbents usually offered their VoIP via "DSL or Other Wireline" technology (98.1%) and the non-incumbents, mostly cable companies, provided it via coaxial lines.
This survey doesn't cover the growth of wireless telephone service. But the agency's last report cited 255.3 million wireless subscribers at the end of June 2008—17 million, or 7 percent, more than a year earlier. By Matthew Lasar
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Jun 23, 2010
More than 55 Million Smartphone Shipments in the First Quarter of 2010
The world’s smartphone markets continued to build on their strong 4Q-2009 performance in the first three months of 2010. According to the latest ABI Research data, a little more than 55 million smartphones shipped during the quarter.
In fact that represents a drop of about one million compared to 4Q-2009, but seasonal sales cycles always produce lower results in the first quarter of any year compared to the previous quarter; according to senior analyst Michael Morgan, “Normally we would see a much greater decline in shipments in the first quarter; the fact that the drop was so relatively small highlights the continuing dynamic growth of the smartphone market.”
Much of the fastest growth is being seen in markets previously little penetrated by expensive, cutting-edge smartphones. With new less expensive models becoming available, the global market is becoming much more diverse.
An example is provided by Nokia. Its shipments rose QoQ from 20.8 million to 21.5 million despite the usual quarterly decline, building on an explosive last quarter of 2009 which saw the firm’s smartphone shipments expand 25%, largely on the strength of its new models such as the “C” and “X” lines which are really experience-focused, lower-cost smartphones that directly address those newer markets. Nokia has a history of success in lower-cost feature phone markets, but until recently their smartphone lineup was exclusively high-end.
“These are not ‘iPhone-killers’,” notes Morgan. “They’re simpler, lower-end devices, not bleeding-edge top-of-the-line technologies, but they can still deliver satisfying social networking and other basic smartphone experiences.”
iPhone shipments also rose slightly, from 8.7 to 8.8 million, partly on the back of strong performance in markets such as Japan and China. Morgan believes that “The smartphone market as a whole was probably buoyed by improving first quarter holiday season demand from the Asia-Pacific region.” NEW YORK - June 23, 2010
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In fact that represents a drop of about one million compared to 4Q-2009, but seasonal sales cycles always produce lower results in the first quarter of any year compared to the previous quarter; according to senior analyst Michael Morgan, “Normally we would see a much greater decline in shipments in the first quarter; the fact that the drop was so relatively small highlights the continuing dynamic growth of the smartphone market.”
Much of the fastest growth is being seen in markets previously little penetrated by expensive, cutting-edge smartphones. With new less expensive models becoming available, the global market is becoming much more diverse.
An example is provided by Nokia. Its shipments rose QoQ from 20.8 million to 21.5 million despite the usual quarterly decline, building on an explosive last quarter of 2009 which saw the firm’s smartphone shipments expand 25%, largely on the strength of its new models such as the “C” and “X” lines which are really experience-focused, lower-cost smartphones that directly address those newer markets. Nokia has a history of success in lower-cost feature phone markets, but until recently their smartphone lineup was exclusively high-end.
“These are not ‘iPhone-killers’,” notes Morgan. “They’re simpler, lower-end devices, not bleeding-edge top-of-the-line technologies, but they can still deliver satisfying social networking and other basic smartphone experiences.”
iPhone shipments also rose slightly, from 8.7 to 8.8 million, partly on the back of strong performance in markets such as Japan and China. Morgan believes that “The smartphone market as a whole was probably buoyed by improving first quarter holiday season demand from the Asia-Pacific region.” NEW YORK - June 23, 2010
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Jun 20, 2010
"The War Is Over" 90% Of Australia Getting Fiber Home After $10B Telstra Deal
Written by Dave Burstein Sunday, 20 June 2010 13:39
The first stage of Australia's NBN is about to go live in Tasmania. A price war has brought the price of 25 megabits (low cap) down to $26 (U.S.). Meanwhile, Telstra and Mike Quigley's NBN have cut a deal. For about $10B, NBN gets ducts, other facilities, and an agreement Telstra will move customers to NBN and ultimately shut down the copper network instead of competing. The price is a little high, but the government is paying to silence opposition.
NBN started because Telstra wanted so much government money for DSL/FTTN the government asked "Why not run fiber all the way home?" The logical next question was "If public money is paying for the network, why should we give it away to a private company?"
The NBN is a campaign issue across the front pages of the newspapers. The politicians will make some more noise, but without Telstra pulling the strings they are unlikely to stop the build. The last 10% will probably be wireless, a sensible compromise. Grahame Lynch at Commsday asked for some comments and I replied:
NBN deal a good thing but don’t overstate the benefits
Some perspective from the other side of the world in New York City. Ultimately, having a great Internet is a good thing for any country. The cost to Australia of this deal is high enough to create opposition today, but looking back after a decade I'm sure almost everyone will think it was the right move.
Experience from other countries points to issues ahead. Britain’s separation has worked marvelously on the retail level and brought British prices down 20-30% from where they likely would have been.
There are some great deals. If you’re already a SKY customer for TV, they will give you a low end DSL line for free and a pretty good connection for $10-20 - plus the eleven pound line charge to BT.
BT has a monopoly in wholesale across half the country and a weak cableco in the other half, giving them market power they take advantage of. Implicit in the NBN proposal is that it will have strong, perhaps monopoly control over the wholesale part of the network. NBN costs will have to be watched by an outside body very closely. NBN will be a quasi-governmental monopoly likely to become wasteful or bloated unless done right. Government bodies can be run well, but far too many aren't.
Both the economic and social benefits of broadband are wildly overstated almost everywhere. There’s a social return to better broadband, but it’s far, far lower then the hype suggests. Most of the numbers thrown around are from shills and zealots. Honest academics looking for the effects find only modest ones.
Tasmania getting faster net connections will not transform the local economy, although it’s likely to help a little. Kids will not do markedly better in school because their home Internet is ten times faster. Rather few net jobs are created by broadband. Some sectors do better, but others—newspapers, bookstores, local TV programming—do worse. If efficient distance learning takes off, it will displace some local teachers. Again, a mix of true believers and shills for the companies wanting government support have wildly exaggerated the likely benefits.
It is absolutely essential not to try to do too much, too fast. Operating procedures and billing turn out to be much harder to get right than anyone expects and take time. Literally thousands of crews will need to be trained, which takes 6-18 months. Untrained crews take twice as long to do an install (literally) and drive up costs. We learned this during the DSL Hell years at the turn of the century. Five years later, AT&T re-learned that lesson. They pushed too hard and U-Verse came in two years late and billions over budget. Verizon FiOS on the other hand went very slowly by plan the first three years. It consistently met the schedule and budget.
Ultimately, a better Internet is of important value, but there are many lessons learned the heard way of what can go wrong.
Written by Dave Burstein Sunday, 20 June 2010 13:39
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Original Article Here
The first stage of Australia's NBN is about to go live in Tasmania. A price war has brought the price of 25 megabits (low cap) down to $26 (U.S.). Meanwhile, Telstra and Mike Quigley's NBN have cut a deal. For about $10B, NBN gets ducts, other facilities, and an agreement Telstra will move customers to NBN and ultimately shut down the copper network instead of competing. The price is a little high, but the government is paying to silence opposition.
NBN started because Telstra wanted so much government money for DSL/FTTN the government asked "Why not run fiber all the way home?" The logical next question was "If public money is paying for the network, why should we give it away to a private company?"
The NBN is a campaign issue across the front pages of the newspapers. The politicians will make some more noise, but without Telstra pulling the strings they are unlikely to stop the build. The last 10% will probably be wireless, a sensible compromise. Grahame Lynch at Commsday asked for some comments and I replied:
NBN deal a good thing but don’t overstate the benefits
Some perspective from the other side of the world in New York City. Ultimately, having a great Internet is a good thing for any country. The cost to Australia of this deal is high enough to create opposition today, but looking back after a decade I'm sure almost everyone will think it was the right move.
Experience from other countries points to issues ahead. Britain’s separation has worked marvelously on the retail level and brought British prices down 20-30% from where they likely would have been.
There are some great deals. If you’re already a SKY customer for TV, they will give you a low end DSL line for free and a pretty good connection for $10-20 - plus the eleven pound line charge to BT.
BT has a monopoly in wholesale across half the country and a weak cableco in the other half, giving them market power they take advantage of. Implicit in the NBN proposal is that it will have strong, perhaps monopoly control over the wholesale part of the network. NBN costs will have to be watched by an outside body very closely. NBN will be a quasi-governmental monopoly likely to become wasteful or bloated unless done right. Government bodies can be run well, but far too many aren't.
Both the economic and social benefits of broadband are wildly overstated almost everywhere. There’s a social return to better broadband, but it’s far, far lower then the hype suggests. Most of the numbers thrown around are from shills and zealots. Honest academics looking for the effects find only modest ones.
Tasmania getting faster net connections will not transform the local economy, although it’s likely to help a little. Kids will not do markedly better in school because their home Internet is ten times faster. Rather few net jobs are created by broadband. Some sectors do better, but others—newspapers, bookstores, local TV programming—do worse. If efficient distance learning takes off, it will displace some local teachers. Again, a mix of true believers and shills for the companies wanting government support have wildly exaggerated the likely benefits.
It is absolutely essential not to try to do too much, too fast. Operating procedures and billing turn out to be much harder to get right than anyone expects and take time. Literally thousands of crews will need to be trained, which takes 6-18 months. Untrained crews take twice as long to do an install (literally) and drive up costs. We learned this during the DSL Hell years at the turn of the century. Five years later, AT&T re-learned that lesson. They pushed too hard and U-Verse came in two years late and billions over budget. Verizon FiOS on the other hand went very slowly by plan the first three years. It consistently met the schedule and budget.
Ultimately, a better Internet is of important value, but there are many lessons learned the heard way of what can go wrong.
Written by Dave Burstein Sunday, 20 June 2010 13:39
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Jun 18, 2010
FCC considering spectrum for free wireless broadband
The FCC may release spectrum for "free or very low-cost" wireless broadband service to boost wider broadband adoption. The proposal is one small part of the commission's national broadband plan, which it will formally present to Congress March 17.
The commission did not offer details about the proposal, including how it will be funded and how many people it will impact. The commission has been dribbling out information about the plan in advance of its release, and increased spectrum for wireless broadband is a key part of the plan.
The agency last month outlined an effort it said could free up 500 MHz of spectrum over the next decade for mobile broadband use. The plan would allow current spectrum licensees, including broadcasters, to voluntarily give up spectrum in exchange for a share of auction proceeds. A separate part of the FCC's broadband plan calls on Congress to allocate $12 billion to $16 billion over 10 years to help build an interoperable, pubic-safety broadband network.
FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski repeatedly has acknowledged the need to free up more spectrum for mobile broadband. "Spectrum--our airwaves--really is the oxygen of mobile broadband service," he said in a speech in February. "Without sufficient spectrum, we will starve mobile broadband of the nourishment it needs to thrive as a platform for innovation, job creation and economic growth." By Phil Goldstein
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The commission did not offer details about the proposal, including how it will be funded and how many people it will impact. The commission has been dribbling out information about the plan in advance of its release, and increased spectrum for wireless broadband is a key part of the plan.
The agency last month outlined an effort it said could free up 500 MHz of spectrum over the next decade for mobile broadband use. The plan would allow current spectrum licensees, including broadcasters, to voluntarily give up spectrum in exchange for a share of auction proceeds. A separate part of the FCC's broadband plan calls on Congress to allocate $12 billion to $16 billion over 10 years to help build an interoperable, pubic-safety broadband network.
FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski repeatedly has acknowledged the need to free up more spectrum for mobile broadband. "Spectrum--our airwaves--really is the oxygen of mobile broadband service," he said in a speech in February. "Without sufficient spectrum, we will starve mobile broadband of the nourishment it needs to thrive as a platform for innovation, job creation and economic growth." By Phil Goldstein
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Jun 13, 2010
John Stankey Is Not A Big Fat Liar
AT&T President John Stankey is a big fat liar, nearly all the reporters and talking heads seem to believe. “Everyone” is saying AT&T needed the 2 gig cap because of congestion – except AT&T. Stankey personally promised thousands of investors on the quarterly call AT&T's congestion problems will be solved within months. He's restored the capex cuts and they are upgrading their network. Two of the best engineers I know expect him to succeed.
I believe Stankey is right and there's absolutely no operational reason for a cap at a low 2 gigabytes – about 90 minutes of quality TV each week. 2 gigabytes would be even more ridiculous for Verizon's soon-to-launch LTE network running at 5-12 megabits. Even at the low end, you'd run past 2 gigabytes in less than an hour a month. LTE is 2-4 times as efficient as 3G, which is enormously profitable with an implicit 5 gigabyte cap, so the natural cap in the LTE generation is 10-25 gigabytes for basic service.
Wall Street thinks the low cap is about higher prices and price discrimination. “These new wireless bundles from ATT seem demonically brilliant! See the cap rates? ATT is going to be flowing in extra money and quickly,” one of the best wrote.
People inevitably will use more mobile bandwidth and consumers will ultimately pay as much as 50% more because of the change. The low cap also protects the telcos' lousy and over-priced video packages.
Stankey's cap, if successful, is a dagger in the chest of the National Broadband Plan, especially affordability. The heart of the plan is releasing more spectrum in the hope that will yield increased competition. That was a long shot, the planners knew, but possible.
With this low cap almost everyone will need to maintain their landline broadband. There's nothing wrong with a cap at a reasonable level at least as high as today's 5-10 gigabytes. A 2 gigabyte cap would be destroyed by the market if Verizon + AT&T weren't marginalizing wireless competition.
Julius Genachowski needs to think clearly and act decisively. He's invited me in to talk, and affordability and rural availability will be my focus, along with avoiding waste of public money. Unless I write something he doesn't like and he rescinds the invitation.
iPhone connections are still struggling in New York and San Francisco, but 90% of AT&T's 3G networks are reliably delivering megabit speeds. AT&T has massive amounts of unused and underused spectrum in most of the U.S. although it takes 6-18 months for some of it to come online. Two of the best engineers in the U.S. tell me wireless congestion can be almost eliminated except at Katrina type emergencies with 5 and 10 gigabyte caps. Models from Adtran suggest 20-30 gig caps (or higher) are practical in the LTE generation.
That guarantees the broadband plan will fail to make connections “affordable.” The only tool the plan proposes is making more spectrum available and praying that new wireless entrants will be significant competition to 25-100 megabit cable and VDSL. Not even the authors of the plan thought that likely to work, but politics prevented them doing anything more effective.
. Two of the best engineers in the U.S. tell me wireless congestion can be almost eliminated except at Katrina type emergencies with 5 and 10 gigabyte caps. Models from Adtran suggest 20-30 gig caps (or higher) are practical in the LTE generation. There's nothing wrong with caps if they are economically sensible. The problem is that AT&T placed the cap much too low. Scott Wallsten reminds me peak pricing rates more directly address any problems, but caps are simpler to implement and understand.
More customers mean massive increases in revenue, more than enough to pay for the equipment needed to serve them. Lindner reports EBITDA margin in Q1 was up 380 basis points to 44.5%. That's huge.Saturday, 12 June 2010 18:08
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I believe Stankey is right and there's absolutely no operational reason for a cap at a low 2 gigabytes – about 90 minutes of quality TV each week. 2 gigabytes would be even more ridiculous for Verizon's soon-to-launch LTE network running at 5-12 megabits. Even at the low end, you'd run past 2 gigabytes in less than an hour a month. LTE is 2-4 times as efficient as 3G, which is enormously profitable with an implicit 5 gigabyte cap, so the natural cap in the LTE generation is 10-25 gigabytes for basic service.
Wall Street thinks the low cap is about higher prices and price discrimination. “These new wireless bundles from ATT seem demonically brilliant! See the cap rates? ATT is going to be flowing in extra money and quickly,” one of the best wrote.
People inevitably will use more mobile bandwidth and consumers will ultimately pay as much as 50% more because of the change. The low cap also protects the telcos' lousy and over-priced video packages.
Stankey's cap, if successful, is a dagger in the chest of the National Broadband Plan, especially affordability. The heart of the plan is releasing more spectrum in the hope that will yield increased competition. That was a long shot, the planners knew, but possible.
With this low cap almost everyone will need to maintain their landline broadband. There's nothing wrong with a cap at a reasonable level at least as high as today's 5-10 gigabytes. A 2 gigabyte cap would be destroyed by the market if Verizon + AT&T weren't marginalizing wireless competition.
Julius Genachowski needs to think clearly and act decisively. He's invited me in to talk, and affordability and rural availability will be my focus, along with avoiding waste of public money. Unless I write something he doesn't like and he rescinds the invitation.
iPhone connections are still struggling in New York and San Francisco, but 90% of AT&T's 3G networks are reliably delivering megabit speeds. AT&T has massive amounts of unused and underused spectrum in most of the U.S. although it takes 6-18 months for some of it to come online. Two of the best engineers in the U.S. tell me wireless congestion can be almost eliminated except at Katrina type emergencies with 5 and 10 gigabyte caps. Models from Adtran suggest 20-30 gig caps (or higher) are practical in the LTE generation.
That guarantees the broadband plan will fail to make connections “affordable.” The only tool the plan proposes is making more spectrum available and praying that new wireless entrants will be significant competition to 25-100 megabit cable and VDSL. Not even the authors of the plan thought that likely to work, but politics prevented them doing anything more effective.
. Two of the best engineers in the U.S. tell me wireless congestion can be almost eliminated except at Katrina type emergencies with 5 and 10 gigabyte caps. Models from Adtran suggest 20-30 gig caps (or higher) are practical in the LTE generation. There's nothing wrong with caps if they are economically sensible. The problem is that AT&T placed the cap much too low. Scott Wallsten reminds me peak pricing rates more directly address any problems, but caps are simpler to implement and understand.
More customers mean massive increases in revenue, more than enough to pay for the equipment needed to serve them. Lindner reports EBITDA margin in Q1 was up 380 basis points to 44.5%. That's huge.Saturday, 12 June 2010 18:08
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Jun 12, 2010
Alcatel, Infinera 100 Gig Closer Than You Think
Basil Alwan of Alcatel "will be production shipping 100G in the next few months," he emails. They've delivered 100G that Softbank is demonstrating in Japan. Alwan claims "full service routing including all edge services (VPNs, QoS etc)."and proving that "already in several customer labs. ... We build our own silicon and have been shipping 100G packet processing / TM chips for awhile. In fact we first ramped this silicon around two years ago (introduced as FP2) and we used it for our 50G full duplex cards. Now that 100G optics are becoming available we simply re-configured the same deep touch chipset in simplex mode."
Rick Dodd of Infinera explained to me why 40 gig was late and disappointing while 100 gig is drawing enthusiasm. "The step from 10 gig to 40 gig was particularly tough because the modulation format changed to phase shift keying and that wasn't easy. 100 gig is also PSK so there are fewer obstacles. We expect 100G will be very big in 2012."
10G required only three optical components: a laser, a modulator, and a photodetector.. 40G's change to PSK and coherent detection literally quadrupled the number of components, from 3 to 12. The same components are used for 100G, running faster as Moore's Law improves performance. Most components, such as line system amplifiers, are little changed from 40G to 100G.
Alwan is proud that Alcatel is ready to deliver both the 100G router and 100G long-haul optics."Both sides of the fiber need to support 100G for it to be useful – the device that is the on-ramp to 100G (the IP/MPLS router) and the long haul optical 100G system. ALU has both – we just announced the 100G coherent long range optical product and demonstrated it. And in the IP/MPLS router our FP2 based 100G routing card is the only card in the industry that does single flow 100G (a true 100G packet processor). The parallels are interesting:
In optical we are the only vendor with single wavelength 100G (Nortel uses 2 waves and others use 4 or more). Naturally doing single wave 100G is more advanced, more difficult and better. In packet IP/MPLS we are the only vendor with single flow 100G packet processing and queueing (both Cisco and JNPR use two or four packet processing systems to handle the traffic). Again doing single flow is more advanced and better – when you have multiple forwarding complexes you have duplicated tables, devices which lead to more board space, more power and less density."
Cisco had a great Q1 but "Q1 was up for us YoY" at Alcatel. "We are not done taking share" Alwan concludes.Written by Dave Burstein Saturday, 12 June 2010 03:53
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Rick Dodd of Infinera explained to me why 40 gig was late and disappointing while 100 gig is drawing enthusiasm. "The step from 10 gig to 40 gig was particularly tough because the modulation format changed to phase shift keying and that wasn't easy. 100 gig is also PSK so there are fewer obstacles. We expect 100G will be very big in 2012."
10G required only three optical components: a laser, a modulator, and a photodetector.. 40G's change to PSK and coherent detection literally quadrupled the number of components, from 3 to 12. The same components are used for 100G, running faster as Moore's Law improves performance. Most components, such as line system amplifiers, are little changed from 40G to 100G.
Alwan is proud that Alcatel is ready to deliver both the 100G router and 100G long-haul optics."Both sides of the fiber need to support 100G for it to be useful – the device that is the on-ramp to 100G (the IP/MPLS router) and the long haul optical 100G system. ALU has both – we just announced the 100G coherent long range optical product and demonstrated it. And in the IP/MPLS router our FP2 based 100G routing card is the only card in the industry that does single flow 100G (a true 100G packet processor). The parallels are interesting:
In optical we are the only vendor with single wavelength 100G (Nortel uses 2 waves and others use 4 or more). Naturally doing single wave 100G is more advanced, more difficult and better. In packet IP/MPLS we are the only vendor with single flow 100G packet processing and queueing (both Cisco and JNPR use two or four packet processing systems to handle the traffic). Again doing single flow is more advanced and better – when you have multiple forwarding complexes you have duplicated tables, devices which lead to more board space, more power and less density."
Cisco had a great Q1 but "Q1 was up for us YoY" at Alcatel. "We are not done taking share" Alwan concludes.Written by Dave Burstein Saturday, 12 June 2010 03:53
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Jun 4, 2010
New venture firm Olympus Capital Partners raises $150 million
New venture firm Olympus Capital Partners raises $150 million
At a time when venture capital is dwindling and funds disappearing, a new Silicon Valley firm called Olympus Capital Partners on Friday confirmed raising a new $150 million fund and its role in leading a $41.5 million, third-round investment in Solexant, a San Jose solar startup.
The investment in Solexant, maker of a novel ultrathin-film photovoltaic technology, is representative of the sort of late-stage investments Olympus intends to specialize in, said founder Rami Elkhatib, a former partner with North Carolina-based Southeast Technology Ventures. Olympus, he said, is focused on "capital-efficient" opportunities in cleantech and information software.
With venture investment trending sharply downward through the recession, Elkhatib said he worked two years to raise Olympus' fund. Building on long-term relationships, he said, he raised money from a small group of limited partners, including a large international asset management group. He declined to identify the investors.
The recession, he said, created an opening for a new late-stage firm because so many established firms have been concentrating their efforts and dollars on nurturing their portfolio companies through the downturn. Olympus anticipates making 10 to 12 investments from the fund, in amounts ranging up to $15 million, he said.
By Scott Duke Harris sdharris@mercurynews.com
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Original Article Here
At a time when venture capital is dwindling and funds disappearing, a new Silicon Valley firm called Olympus Capital Partners on Friday confirmed raising a new $150 million fund and its role in leading a $41.5 million, third-round investment in Solexant, a San Jose solar startup.
The investment in Solexant, maker of a novel ultrathin-film photovoltaic technology, is representative of the sort of late-stage investments Olympus intends to specialize in, said founder Rami Elkhatib, a former partner with North Carolina-based Southeast Technology Ventures. Olympus, he said, is focused on "capital-efficient" opportunities in cleantech and information software.
With venture investment trending sharply downward through the recession, Elkhatib said he worked two years to raise Olympus' fund. Building on long-term relationships, he said, he raised money from a small group of limited partners, including a large international asset management group. He declined to identify the investors.
The recession, he said, created an opening for a new late-stage firm because so many established firms have been concentrating their efforts and dollars on nurturing their portfolio companies through the downturn. Olympus anticipates making 10 to 12 investments from the fund, in amounts ranging up to $15 million, he said.
By Scott Duke Harris sdharris@mercurynews.com
FREE sample (Connectors, Cable & Wire harness FOR Solar panel)
Original Article Here
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